I don't think that analogy quite fits. While you may have told your SO only once, the event "crossdresser tells SO" is repeated many times a day, I would guess. So it is meaningful to talk about probabilities as long as you understand the limitations... probabilities are useful to gauge the reactions of SOs in general, but not for any particular SO.
A better way to put it is that probabilities are useful to describe the behavior of large numbers of events. Carbon dating is very accurate because we know to high accuracy the half-life of carbon-14... but we have no idea whether a particular carbon-14 atom is going to decay into nitrogen now or 1000 years from now.
Getting back on-topic...
How many guys would be supportive of their wives binding their breasts, gluing on fake mustaches and packing their pants? How many would want to go out on the town with their wives like that? And how many would enthusiastically buy men's clothes for their wives?
I thought so.
So if your SO tolerates your CDing, consider yourself lucky. And don't have unrealistic expectations about the reveal.





